For decades, the Philippines has enjoyed one of the youngest populations in Asia, a demographic advantage that has helped fuel economic growth, consumption and a steady supply of workers.
But beneath that youthful image, a significant shift is underway.
Filipinos have fewer children, the population is steadily aging, and policymakers are beginning to prepare for a future that has already arrived in many of Asia’s wealthiest economies.
For Dr. Alexander Bodidoza, Asia-Pacific Regional Director of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the challenge is not the aging of the population itself. The greater challenge is whether governments are prepared to recognize and seize the opportunities that come with it.
“We really want to look at the aging population not as a burden but as a powerful driver of growth.”
Bodidoza is in Manila for the Asean High-Level Forum on Unlocking the Silver Economy, a two-day gathering from June 3 to 4 hosted by the Department of Social Welfare and Development in partnership with UNFPA, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, and the Economic Research Institute for Asean and East Asia. The forum brings together Asean leaders, policymakers, development partners, and experts to discuss how aging populations can continue contributing to economic growth and development.
Young but aging
Speaking on ANC’s “Market Edge” with Michelle Ong, Bodidoza noted that the Philippines continues to benefit from a demographic dividend, with a large share of the population still in their most productive working years.
Yet demographic trends suggest that the advantage will not last indefinitely.
According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, senior citizens aged 60 and above accounted for 8.5 percent of the Philippine population, or about 9.22 million Filipinos, in 2020, up from 7.5 percent in 2015. During the same period, the country’s aging index climbed from 23.4 to 27.6, indicating a growing number of older Filipinos relative to children.
The country’s fertility rate has also fallen sharply, reaching 1.7 births per woman, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1.
The discussion comes as governments across Southeast Asia confront one of the region’s biggest demographic shifts. UNFPA and Asean partners have increasingly framed population aging not merely as a social welfare challenge, but as an economic opportunity that requires new approaches to labor markets, healthcare, lifelong learning, and financial resilience.
The trend is expected to accelerate in the decades ahead. According to UNFPA and ERIA projections, one in four people in Asia and the Pacific will be over the age of 60 by 2050.
For Bodidoza, these figures are not a reason for alarm. Instead, they underscore the need to act early.
“The fertility [rate] in the country is 1.7 [percent]. It’s the right time to think about how we put together the right policy responses that are rights-based, that focus on and empowering women, and prepare for that time when officially the Philippines will enter that aging population by 2030.”
Not about population size
As countries around the world grapple with falling birth rates, debates often focus on whether governments should encourage people to have more children.
Bodidoza believes that misses the bigger point.
“That absolutely should not be a target. We should be looking at where the opportunities are. We should be looking at the entire issue of demographic shift not as a crisis in any way, but looking at it from the perspective of opportunities.”
Instead of focusing on population growth alone, he said governments should focus on helping people reach their full economic potential through investments in healthcare, education and human capital.
“The country can maximize that opportunity of demographic shift through investment in quality education and healthcare. And investing in human capital delivers that measurable economic return.”
The economic payoff can be substantial.
“For every dollar invested in ending preventable maternal deaths, for example, and unmet need for family planning, it can generate up to $8.40 in economic benefits by 2050.”
That investment, Bodidoza said, becomes even more important as countries seek to maximize the productivity and participation of every segment of society.
Women’s empowerment
Countries such as Japan and South Korea are much further along in the demographic transition and offer valuable lessons for the Philippines.
Yet despite different cultures, economic models and policy approaches, Bodidoza said one factor consistently emerges among countries that adapt successfully.
“If I’m to find that one common determinant or one thing that shows the impact, that is women’s empowerment.”
For him, the Philippines’ greatest untapped economic opportunity may not be population growth but the economic potential of women.
“The Philippines cannot maximize demographic dividend without unlocking that economic potential of women. Women are on average more educated in this country than men. But yet, if you’re looking at the labor force participation, they remain significantly lagging behind.”
He added that much of women’s contribution remains unseen despite its enormous value to households and the broader economy.
“Filipino women already perform 50 percent of the total productive work when unpaid care is valued. And yet much of this contribution remains invisible and undervalued.”
The result is an economic loss that countries can no longer afford as populations age.
“No country can maximize this demographic dividend while half of this talent is held back from the workforce.”
Building a ‘silver economy’
Ultimately, Bodidoza said the conversation should move beyond fears of aging and toward building systems that allow people to remain healthy, productive and engaged throughout their lives.
That begins with changing how society views older people.
“We want to start looking at elderly population not as dependents and start looking at them as active contributors to the economy.”
That idea sits at the heart of the so-called silver economy, one where older persons continue creating value as workers, entrepreneurs, consumers, mentors, caregivers, and community leaders.
For the Philippines, demographic change is no longer a distant scenario discussed in forecasts and projections. It is already taking shape.
The good news is that the country still has time, a young workforce, and a growing awareness among policymakers of what lies ahead. With sustained investments in people, stronger support for women, and policies that empower older Filipinos to remain active and engaged, the demographic transition could become one of the country’s most important opportunities for inclusive and sustainable growth in the decades ahead. (ABS-CBN News)