Stronger typhoons in the Philippines have become more frequent in recent years, according to two climate scientists from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).
Dr. Joseph Basconcillo said their study of tropical cyclones from 1996 to 2022 showed a rise in the number of super typhoons that developed in or entered the Philippine area of responsibility in the last two decades.
Super typhoons have maximum wind speeds of at least 185 kilometers per hour (kph).
This November, Super Typhoon “Uwan” hit the Philippines, less than a week after Typhoon “Tino” left at least 200 people dead.
“Mula taong 1996 hanggang 2002, isa o dalawa lamang ‘yung super typhoon na nabubuo o pumapasok sa loob ng Philippine area of responsibility. Mula 2003 hanggang 2022, tatlo hanggang apat ang nabubuo kada taon. Ibig sabihin halos 104 percent ‘yung recent increase natin doon sa number of super typhoons sa Pilipinas,” Basconcillo explained.
Dr. John Manalo shared this observation, noting that climate change also contributed to fueling the more intense storms.
“‘Yung sobrang lalakas, greater than 175 kph, ‘yun naman ang dumarami. ‘Yung malalakas na bagyo ay patuloy na magiging madalas at ‘yung lakas niya ay patuloy na magiging malakas,” he said.
“‘Yung global warming and ‘yung climate change din na interrelated ay nakaka-contribute din, kaya tumataas din ‘yung sea surface temperature natin … Halimbawa, may existing na bagyo and then mas mainit ang sea surface temperature natin, ‘yung intensification ng mga bagyo ay mas nagiging favorable,” Manalo explained.
Basconcillo attributed the more frequent super typhoons in the country to a cyclical phenomenon of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. But he said there are indications that it could be associated with climate change.
“Ibig sabihin ‘yung karagatan doon sa Atlantic Ocean, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean ay umiinit sa pangkaraniwan. ‘Yung mainit na karagatan sa Atlantic Ocean, eventually aakyat ‘yun at bababa siya papunta doon sa Karagatang Pasipiko … That kind of teleconnection ay mayroong epekto doon sa klima ng Pilipinas sa pangmatagalan,” Basconcillo explained.
“May kinalaman po ba ito sa climate change? Ang sinasabi sa mga pag-aaral, ‘yung recent shift sa tinatawag na Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation into its positive phase ay it can be attributed with the increased greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in that region of the world … There are indications that it could be associated with climate change,” he added.
Basconcillo’s study also showed that while tropical cyclones in the Philippines generally decreased in recent decades, damage to agriculture and infrastructure, and the number of affected individuals increased.
Some factors seen are increasing population density, expanding infrastructure, rapid urbanization, and differences in policy measures.
“There’s an increase in population density, and there’s also an expansion of infrastructure as compared to previous times. There’s also rapid urbanization, and we can also say there are differences in the policy measures implemented in the past and in the current time,” Basconcillo said.
Prepare for climate change scenarios
University of the Philippines’ Resilience Institute Executive Director Mahar Lagmay urged local governments to prepare for climate change scenarios, and invest in sustainable, nature-based solutions to flooding.
“If we don’t prepare for these bigger events, then we fail to anticipate. If we fail to anticipate, then we get surprised, which turns into a disaster. We are become sitting ducks,” he said.
To avoid disaster when typhoons strike, Lagmay advises local government units to plan land use and get people out of harm’s way. He also said interventions like detention basins, rain water harvesting, line pumping stations located near large bodies of water, and restoring watersheds can help mitigate flooding.
“If we just restore, for example, a watershed, the forest cover as it was in 1990, we will be able to reduce the flood by a volume of about one million cubic meters out of a total of 11 million cubic meters,” Lagmay explained.
He noted that the country’s preparations for typhoons have improved in terms of public awareness, monitoring, communication of warnings, and capacity of the community to resist adversity. But he said more needs to be done.
“We have improved significantly and the reason why I say this is because from 1986 to 2013, we used to have on average about 1,000 to 1,250 deaths per year from severe weather hazards. Starting from 2014 up to 2024 … it was brought down to about 250 deaths per year,” Lagmay said.
“A disaster can be defined by a specific hazard that overwhelms a community, a barangay or adjacent barangays with 10 or more deaths. That number has been steadily rising since 2018,” he added. (ABS-CBN News)