Super typhoons are becoming the norm in the Philippines as the Earth continues to warm.
The latest string of destructive cyclones, Typhoon “Tino” (Kalmaegi) and Super Typhoon “Uwan” (Fung-wong) struck the Philippines at the same time as the United Nations climate conference (COP 30) was held in Brazil.
An analysis of the Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute on the two weather systems revealed that human-induced climate change was the reason for increased wind speed and rainfall, making “Tino” and “Uwan” the deadliest typhoons to ravage the country in 2025.
Also called anthropogenic climate change (ACC), human activities, mainly through the burning of oil, gas and coal, also increased “Tino’s” economic damage to the Philippines by 42 percent.
The intense rainfall from both typhoons not only caused massive flooding but also landslides.
As the COP 30 enters its second week, scientists are reminding negotiators of the very essence of the Paris Agreement and how measures to limit global warming by 1.5 degrees Celsius should be every nation’s priority.
“In today’s climate, with 1.3 degrees Celsius warming, a ‘Fung-wong’-type typhoon has become 17 percent more likely, while a ‘Kalmaegi’-type typhoon has become 33 percent more likely,” said Professor Ralf Toumi, director of the Grantham Institute.
But the United Nations Environment Program has said the world is likely to breach the 1.5 degrees Celsius target. And that’s a dangerous thing.
“In a world warmed by two degrees Celsius, a ‘Fung-wong’-type typhoon would result in 63 percent more in damages. For ‘Kalmaegi,’ damages would be 26 percent higher in a two degrees Celsius world compared to a cooler world with no climate change.”
The two degree offshoot from the global target hasn’t happened yet. But the world need not wait for that to witness just how catastrophic extreme weather events may become.
In just the last five years, a lot of strong typhoons have come and gone. However, some of them are extremely hard to forget.
It’s been four years since Trixy Elle, a fisherwoman from Bohol province in central Philippines, survived the wrath of Super Typhoon “Odette.” But the wounds of that fateful evening in December 2021 remain fresh to this day. Up to now, recalling and talking about it sends her into a heart-wrenching weep.
They knew that “Odette” was coming. But having lived on the island all her life with no firsthand experience of a super typhoon, she also knew then that the safest place was home.
The following minutes proved her wrong, with storm surges sending waves higher than their home.
Elle, her sons, husband and ill father tightly locked arms while seeking safer ground.
“Sabi ni papa, maghawak-kamay lang kami na kahit anong mangyari, walang bibitiw. Kung maka-survive, eh maka-survive. Kung mamatay, mamatay tayong lahat,” she said, her voice cracking.
Typhoon “Odette” killed over 400 people, leaving families mourning at a time when many others were filled with holiday cheer.
As the most destructive typhoon to hit the country that year, “Odette” left devastation worth almost a billion dollars in its wake.
Elle is among the thousands of global citizens currently in Belém, Brazil for the UN climate conference (COP 30). Their story of pain, loss, suffering and slow recovery is one she wants to tell all nations.
Every year, an average of 20 typhoons tear across the Philippines and every year, scientists warn of the same thing: Future typhoons are bound to become even more intense and devastating if global warming is not controlled.
“We didn’t know what a super typhoon was,” Elle said.
Talking about it now, Elle admits being squeamish that just four years ago, climate change was something completely alien to her.
At times, she feels the irony of being in the same hall as top climate scientists and renowned climate advocates, when her own knowledge of climate change is relatively new.
When news of a brewing weather system started making the news in the second week of December 2021, they dismissed it as “just another storm.”
“Sabi nila Signal No. 2 or 3. We never experienced a super typhoon, so kumpyansa lang kami. Sabi ng mga matatanda sa ‘min, ‘Inuulyanin na ang mundo.'”
In June, a study by the Imperial College London revealed how the sheer amount of rainfall and torrential wind speed of “Odette” have become even more likely due to human-induced climate change.
“Anthropogenic climate change [ACC] has likely more than doubled the likelihood of a compound event like Typhoon ‘Odette.’ ACC played a significant role in amplifying the damage, and this risk will very likely continue to grow with increasing levels of warming.”
Make polluters pay
After Brazil, Elle is set to embark on another long journey — making polluters pay.
It will be a long and arduous walk in pursuit of justice. But it all starts with a lawsuit she and dozens of other typhoon victims filed against a fuel company in the United Kingdom. Their claim is exactly what science says — anthropogenic climate change has caused more intense typhoons with devastating impacts.
Backing Elle up are not just climate advocates and lawyers but scientists themselves who use scientific and empirical data to solidify her case.
Astrid Caldas of the Union of Concerned Scientists says they expect science-based evidence to be used thoroughly in cases involving climate and the environment.
“We have the fact, we have the data. Scientific data does not lie, and it shows that it is indeed a consequence of global warming and the emissions that are up in the atmosphere that are causing all this destruction,” she said.
“We also know that oil companies knew and didn’t do anything about it.”
With a hectic week at COP 30 and working on very little sleep, Elle said the sacrifice pales in comparison to the life she dreams for her children and their future children should fate favor them.
If there’s one thing she would want to take away, it’s the trauma “Odette” caused to her two children who now hide under their sheets every time the sky rumbles and heavy rainfall follows.
“Hindi natin ito mapapansin ngayon pero alam ko na sa future at mga magiging apo ko, siguro masasabi nila na ‘naging warrior ang lola ko.’ Everything is very unfamiliar to me. Pero kinakaya,” Elle said. (ABS-CBN News)