Four to seven tropical cyclones may form inside or enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) in the last quarter of 2024, Pagasa said yesterday.
Two or three storms are forecast in October and one or two each in November and December, the state weather bureau said in a climate forum.
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Solis said tropical cyclones tend to make landfall and cross the country around this period.
Most of the past October storms made landfall over Luzon, while November and December cyclones mostly hit Bicol, Eastern Visayas and eastern Mindanao.
Solis added that although a weak La Niña is possible in the same period, intense typhoons could also be expected.
“Historically, may nakita tayong during weak La Niña [in the] last quarter of the year, mas nagkakaroon tayo ng occurrences ng mga super typhoon and typhoon category [na mga bagyo] … at the same time, rain-bearing ‘yung mga bagyo natin,” she said.
State weather forecasters see a storm forming off Northern Luzon this weekend.
The next storm names on Pagasa’s list for 2024 include the following: Julian, Kristine, Leon, Marce, Nika, Ofel, Pepito, and Querubin.
Increased tropical cyclone activity
The potential “Julian” could be the 10th weather disturbance in the country this 2024 and the sixth this September.
Six storms in the country in September is very rare as it has only happened twice in the past: in 1978 and 1993.
Climatologists attribute this increased tropical cyclone activity to the lack of storms in the previous months and the warm sea temperatures near the country.
“Hanggang August, wala tayong gaanong bagyo pero energy balance ‘yun eh, so pagdating ng susunod na buwan, like for this case September, maraming bagyo,” Climatology and Agrometeorology Division chief Thelma Cinco said.
“Nakita natin mostly near the land area ‘yung mga nabubuong low pressure area at ang bibilis [maging bagyo], di ba? Kasi mas mainit kaysa sa normal ‘yung na-observe natin na sea surface temperature sa Philippine Sea,” she added.
The first nine tropical cyclones of 2024 caused 101 deaths, 64 injuries, and 34 missing, based on reports from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.
Cumulative damage to infrastructure amounted to P7.6 billion, while the agriculture sector suffered around P4 billion in damage.
In 2023, there were only 11 storms in the country — tying the record for the least number of storms in a year with 1998 and 2010. This was seen as an effect of the strong El Niño that gripped many parts of the world. (ABS-CBN News)