The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) warned that the short-lived La Niña now affecting the country will continue to bring above-normal rainfall in many regions until February, increasing the risk of flooding, landslides, and weather disruptions.
In a “Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon” interview, Pagasa Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) chief Ana Liza Solis said the current La Niña episode is expected to last no more than six months but will still have a strong influence on local weather conditions.
Solis explained that La Niña develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific cool, strengthening weather systems that push more moisture toward the Philippines.
“So, nandyan pa rin po iyong banta ng mataas na dami ng pag-ulan, so magiging prevalent po at maraming beses na mararanasan iyong mga rain-bearing weather systems natin,” Solis said.
“So, lalo na po iyong shear line, very prevalent po siya ngayon.”
Pagasa released a La Niña Watch in August and raised it to a La Niña Alert in September when conditions began to develop. Since then, several tropical cyclones have entered the Philippine area of responsibility, triggering heavy rains in Luzon, the Visayas and parts of Mindanao.
Solis said rainfall risks remain elevated in Region 2, the Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, the Bicol Region, Western and Central Visayas, the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, the Davao Region, Soccsksargen, Caraga, and the Bangsamoro region.
The eastern sections of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao are expected to experience the heaviest rains until early February.
The agency also expects more tropical cyclones than usual during La Niña years.
“We have already recorded 23 tropical cyclones this year, above the annual average of 19 to 20. One more may still form before the year ends,” she said.
Solis noted that stronger easterlies are bringing warm, moisture-rich air toward the country, contributing to the development of convective systems, low-pressure areas, and potential cyclones. Warmer waters near the Philippines also increase the likelihood of disturbances.
Pagasa urged local government units to continue coordinating with the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, the Department of the Interior and Local Government and emergency response agencies to ensure communities are prepared.
The agency emphasized the need for early warning systems, localized evacuation plans, and close monitoring of high-risk areas.
Although La Niña is expected to weaken by February, Solis said there is still no indication of an imminent shift to El Niño.
“We are currently monitoring for an ENSO-neutral phase by early next year,” she said.
Officials urged the public to stay alert as persistent rains and frequent weather systems may continue to trigger hazards in already saturated communities nationwide. (PNA)