The low pressure area (LPA) outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) is now a tropical depression, and it may enter PAR today.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced yesterday that the LPA developed into a tropical depression at 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday, September 10.

In a bulletin issued 11:00 a.m. yesterday, PAGASA said the tropical depression is already 1,495 kilometers east of the Visayas.

It was previously stationary or stuck in the same spot, but was moving east northeast at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h) yesterday.

The tropical depression has maximum winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is expected to intensify into a tropical storm before entering PAR today.

When it enters PAR, it will be given the local name “Marilyn.”

But even before its entry, the trough or extension of the tropical depression, combined with the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat, will already bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms.

The rain will mostly be light to moderate, but may be heavy at times, in the following areas: Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo islands, Bicol, and Visayas.

The good news – the potential “Marilyn” is not expected to make landfall in the Philippines. It is likely to just stay east of the country until Sunday, September 15.

The Philippines has had 12 tropical cyclones in 2019, with two of those in September.

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected. (Acor Arceo, Rappler.com)